An online advertising intervention to increase adherence to stay-at-home-orders during the COVID-19 pandemic: An efficacy trial monitoring individual-level mobility data.

The COVID-19 pandemic has led public health departments to issue several orders and recommendations to reduce COVID-19-related morbidity and mortality. However, for various reasons, including lack of ability to sufficiently monitor and influence behavior change, adherence to these health orders and recommendations has been suboptimal. Starting April 29, 2020, during the initial stay-at-home orders issued by various state governors, we conducted an intervention that sent online website and mobile application advertisements to people's mobile phones to encourage them to adhere to stay-at-home orders. Adherence to stay-at-home orders was monitored using individual-level cell phone mobility data, from April 29, 2020 through May 10, 2020. Mobile devices across 5 regions in the United States were randomly-assigned to either receive advertisements from our research team advising them to stay at home to stay safe (intervention group) or standard advertisements from other advertisers (control group). Compared to control group devices that received only standard corporate advertisements (i.e., did not receive public health advertisements to stay at home), the (intervention group) devices that received public health advertisements to stay at home demonstrated objectively-measured increased adherence to stay at home (i.e., smaller radius of gyration, average travel distance, and larger stay-at-home ratios). Results suggest that 1) it is feasible to use mobility data to assess efficacy of an online advertising intervention, and 2) online advertisements are a potentially effective method for increasing adherence to government/public health stay-at-home orders.

Demand-driven spreading patterns of African swine fever in China.

African swine fever (ASF) is a highly contagious hemorrhagic viral disease of domestic and wild pigs. ASF has led to major economic losses and adverse impacts on livelihoods of stakeholders involved in the pork food system in many European and Asian countries. While the epidemiology of ASF virus (ASFV) is fairly well understood, there is neither any effective treatment nor vaccine. In this paper, we propose a novel method to model the spread of ASFV in China by integrating the data of pork import/export, transportation networks, and pork distribution centers. We first empirically analyze the overall spatiotemporal patterns of ASFV spread and conduct extensive experiments to evaluate the efficacy of a number of geographic distance measures. These empirical analyses of ASFV spread within China indicate that the first occurrence of ASFV has not been purely dependent on the geographical distance from existing infected regions. Instead, the pork supply-demand patterns have played an important role. Predictions based on a new distance measure achieve better performance in predicting ASFV spread among Chinese provinces and thus have the potential to enable the design of more effective control interventions.

The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the prevention and control of COVID-19 in New York City.

The emergence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has infected more than 62 million people worldwide. Control responses varied across countries with different outcomes in terms of epidemic size and social disruption. This study presents an age-specific susceptible-exposed-infected-recovery-death model that considers the unique characteristics of COVID-19 to examine the effectiveness of various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in New York City (NYC). Numerical experiments from our model show that the control policies implemented in NYC reduced the number of infections by 72% [interquartile range (IQR) 53-95] and the number of deceased cases by 76% (IQR 58-96) by the end of 2020. Among all the NPIs, social distancing for the entire population and protection for the elderly in public facilities is the most effective control measure in reducing severe infections and deceased cases. School closure policy may not work as effectively as one might expect in terms of reducing the number of deceased cases. Our simulation results provide novel insights into the city-specific implementation of NPIs with minimal social disruption considering the locations and population characteristics.